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Economists and real estate market experts in the UAE anticipate an increase in demand and the continuation of an upward trend in property prices in 2024. However, many expect significant changes in the situation by the second half of 2024. Current data indicates an upcoming shift, which will particularly impact the luxury real estate market. It is important to note that this is not about an impending market decline but rather some significant change in the status quo. In the first half of the year, in Dubai, a crucial trade hub and the tourist capital of the Middle East, there is an expected increase in the average housing prices by 5–7%. Prices in Abu Dhabi are projected to grow by 3–5%. Analysts believe the market will maintain stability in the next 3–4 months.
Analysts’ confidence is based on the extraordinary growth of the UAE real estate market in the previous year. Recent data from the Dubai Land Department indicates that in the first nine months of 2023 alone, 116,116 transactions were concluded in the emirate, totaling approximately 117 billion dollars. This represents a 33.8% year-on-year growth in transaction volume and a 36.7% increase in value for the same period. Abu Dhabi has seen an increase in the number of transactions due to heightened demand from both national and foreign investors from Gulf countries. In the first half of the past year, the capital emirate recorded 10,557 transactions totaling 12.6 billion dollars.
Returning to market forecasts, in the middle of the next year, possibly by early summer, the market may face a turning point. Analysts expect changes that will primarily affect the elite segment of the sector. It is unclear whether the market anticipates stabilisation, stagnation, or correction. All scenarios are quite possible. Among the main sources of growth expected in the first half, experts highlight the interest of major investment groups. The main nationalities of investors will include Indians, Chinese, Britons, Russians, and several other European nationalities. Chinese buyers and investors are expected to play a significant role. Additionally, active participation from investors from Latin American countries, as well as Mexico and Canada, is anticipated.
